In the absence of policies, global warming is expected to reach 4.1°C – 4.8°C above pre-industrial by the end of the century. The emissions that drive this warming are often called Baseline scenarios (‘Baselines’ in the above figure) and are taken from the IPCC AR5 Working Group III. Current policies presently in place around the world are projected to reduce baseline emissions and result in about 3.0°C1 warming above pre-industrial levels. The unconditional pledges and targets that governments have made, including NDCs2 as of December 2019, would limit warming to about 2.8°C3 above pre-industrial levels, or in probabilistic terms, likely (66% or greater chance) limit warming below 3.0°C. Warming estimates have fallen by 0.1-0.2°C compared to the CAT’s September 2019 update. However, the reason is largely methodological changes and data updates rather than any major scaling-up of climate action.

at 2 degrees global temp rise - agriculture yields significantly less bountiful - less food for more people- hurricanes and floods, extreme weather would dramatically increase- 4x as many wildfires in california . 4 degrees all major ice sheets in the planet would begin permanent irreversible melt which means we would lose all ice no matter what we did that ice together would add at leaset 200 feet of sea levle rise to the planet - inundate every single beach youve ever been to. the entire coastline of the world on which 2/3 of all major cities exist would be unrecognizable. 4 degrees means world gdp 20-30 percent smaller than it would be without climate change- 30 percent is an impact twice as deep as the great depression in the 1930s and it would be forever. roughly 600 trillion dollars in global climate damages which is double the amount of money than currently exists in the world- agricultureal yields would be half as productive. mosquitos carrying dengue and malaria would reach around the world up to the arctic circle. currently with emissions remaining at business as usual we are set to hit 4 degrees global temperature increase by 2100- the population will be 11 billion- notes taken from years of living dangerously project with david wallace wells